Analyst Predicts September iPod 'Surprise'

An analyst's job is much like that of a fortune teller. Especially the job of an Apple analyst, who has nothing more to go on than some educated guesswork and the pattern of the tea-leaves left in Steve Jobs' cup of Lapsang Souchong.

Today the analyst in question is the venerable Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, and he is predicting a September refresh of the iPod lineup. From where did he pull this information? Well, perhaps he cheated and took a look at last years' calendar. And the year before that. And yes, the year before that. Predicting a September iPod event is akin to predicting Christmas sometime in late December: It happens every single year.

The technical details are equally "surprising". Munster reckons that the iPod Shuffle will double in size to 2GB, and that the iPod Touch might be slightly tweaked. We'd agree with both. Memory prices drop, so why not bump the Shuffle a bit? And a new, lower priced Touch, with coloured plastic replacing the shiny metal backplate seems a certainty, too. Munster isn't so sure about the Zune Nano, though.

And according to Macworld, Munster is also betting on a new line of MacBooks at the same time. We say no. Apple's special events usually focus on one product or line. The company likes to send a clear message, and also enjoy the free publicity that comes with its simple, easy to digest product announcements. So while we might see the long rumored aluminum MacBook later this year, it is very unlikely to show up at the same time as the new iPods.

Putting on my analyst hat for a moment, I would like to make a few tech predictions of my own. In the summer of 2009, Apple will release a new iPhone. Also, sometime in the next few weeks, I myself will become so incensed by a piece of perfectly good technology which has been covered in fake jewels that I will rant right here in the pages of Gadget Lab.

And, most predictable of all, in the next month Danny Dumas will turn up at his hairdresser with a page ripped from a teen magazine. Pointing at the hair of the latest boy-band heart-throb, he'll say simply "I want this one".