Two vendors of consumer Linux distributions, gOS and Xandros, spoke glowingly about the OS and its future. But representatives of three PC OEMs next to them – Dell, HP, and Lenovo – declined to commit to the operating system as a platform for their machines, with the exception of the education market.
The real future for Linux? Netbooks, Nettops, and other appliances, where Linux is being slotted in at the low end of the market as a Windows replacement. The message, if there was one, was that Linux's minstream success on the desktop was directly tied to the success of the low-cost netbook/nettop/appliance market, and to enthusiasts' efforts to install and run Linux themselves.
"In traditional desktop and notebook platforms, growth there is going to be tepid," said Jim Mann, a product strategist for HP's notebook division. "The really explosive growth is in appliances."
The question that opened the panel discussion here at LinuxWorld was a simple one: now that OEMs have begun shipping Linux on PCs, now what? The answer seemed to be that Linux remains a solid, dependable operating system, but with some significantly frayed edges.
In notebooks, for example, Linux "is not as good as Windows" in power management, according to Debra Kobs, a development team member and software strategist for Lenovo. That has helped Windows gain traction in the mid-range netbook market at price points at $500 or above, others noted. As the price climbs, the price of a Windows license becomes more easily factored in.
All three OEMs have eased Linux into the desktop and notebook market: Lenovo, by preloading Linux on ThinkPad notebooks; HP, with its Compaq nx5000 Linux-based notebook; and Dell, which as preloaded Ubuntu on certain desktop models, as a response to customer feedback on its IdeaStorm Web site.
This week, IBM, Canonical/Ubuntu, Novell and Red Hat and a number of unnamed hardware partners will ship "Microsoft-free" PCs with Lotus Notes and Symphony, the software companies said, beginning in 2009. When asked if they would be among the partners, all three OEMs were silent.
What's holding Linux back? When asked what they would have the Linux community improve, all three OEM representatives named power management. HP's Mann added the lack of good wireless support. John Hull, manager of an engineering team at Dell, wanted shorter boot times. And Mann added, "don't ever make me open a terminal window and access a command prompt."
That doesn't mean the OS hasn't had its successes. All three said that Linux had been well-received by the education market and third-world countries, and not just One Laptop Per Child low-cost PC efforts.
Still, the panel seemed to indicate that many still see Linux as just a cheaper alternative to Windows, rather than an operating system that has its own advantages. In the education example, for example, Lenovo's Kobs explained the appeal of Linux as a "low cost computing solution." "Looking at the business offering, one of the things we continue to look at on a regular basis is price," Kobs said. "It is one of the most important things."
Not surprisingly, the two Linux vendors represented on the panel took a different view. David Liu, the chief executive of gOS, which launched gOS 3 this week, said the Linux community needs to improve the user interface – not surprisingly, as that is gOS' goal – and the underlying drivers, and Linux applications. "I guess the short answer is can we change the UI and apps, and not just cost down", or lower the cost, of the platform, he said.
But Linux also has to carve out its own niche, he said. "How do we tell consumers and tell our partners on the hardware side…how it fits into the ecosystem?" he asked.
The answer may be in the way Linux is presented to the world through the low-cost netbook market. Still a tiny fraction of sales – roughly 3 percent, according to a recent Gartner report, Linux-based products like the Eee PC have become an unexpected hit with women aged 35 to 45, according to Kelly Fraser, a desktop product manager with Xandros.
The problem is that Microsoft, in turn, has recognized the issue and has extended the lifespan of its Windows XP Home Edition software to compete with Linux-based netbooks. "I think Linux companies like ourselves want to work closely with companies aligning themselves with the next wave of appliances," Liu said. "But we have to see the opportunity and take it before others step in and fill the gap," Liu said.
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